Probability

Thoughts, essays, etc. A blog by Samuel Weisenthal.

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  1/3/2026

  Policies, adjustment, decisions, sharks

• 12/12/2025

  On the acceptable range of model calibration

• 12/1/2025

  GPT-5 and medical decisions

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  11/9/2025

  Decision analysis and medical research

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  10/19/2025

  Decision analysis and insurance

• 

  8/25/2025

  Decision analysis and the pharmaceutical industry

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  7/3/2025

  Should chatbots make medical decisions?

• 6/1/2025

  Ode to an appendix

• 5/25/2025

  Keep the real data in the loop

• 4/6/2025

  Humanity’s fundamental DAG

• 4/4/2025

  Reflections on Relative Sparsity

• 3/20/2025

  Propensity vs. outcome model

• 3/19/2025

  Inverse probability weighting as change of measure

• 3/2/2025

  Patient-specific statistics are key

• 2/16/2025

  Standard deviation of a lab value

• 1/28/2025

  Clinical trials and decision analysis

• 1/27/2025

  Decision analysis defines roles in a malpractice trial

• 12/14/2024

  The kindness of decision analysis

• 12/8/2024

  Decision analysis and the real world

• 9/29/2024

  Terminology matters