Probability

Thoughts, essays, etc by Samuel Weisenthal

• 4/9/2026

  A consensus on causality?

• 

  1/3/2026

  Policies, adjustment, decisions, sharks

• 12/12/2025

  On the acceptable range of model calibration

• 12/1/2025

  GPT-5 and medical decisions

• 

  11/9/2025

  Decision analysis and medical research

• 

  10/19/2025

  Decision analysis and insurance

• 

  8/25/2025

  Decision analysis and the pharmaceutical industry

• 

  7/3/2025

  Should chatbots make medical decisions?

• 6/1/2025

  Ode to an appendix

• 5/25/2025

  Keep the real data in the loop

• 4/6/2025

  Humanity’s fundamental DAG

• 4/4/2025

  Reflections on Relative Sparsity

• 3/20/2025

  Propensity vs. outcome model

• 3/19/2025

  Inverse probability weighting as change of measure

• 3/2/2025

  Patient-specific statistics are key

• 2/16/2025

  Standard deviation of a lab value

• 1/28/2025

  Clinical trials and decision analysis

• 1/27/2025

  Decision analysis defines roles in a malpractice trial

• 12/14/2024

  The kindness of decision analysis

• 12/8/2024

  Decision analysis and the real world

• 9/29/2024

  Terminology matters

• 8/21/2024

  Don’t hate the p-value…

• 

  8/17/2024

  The roles assigned by decision analysis

• 

  7/14/2024

  Decision analysis (a probabilistic treatment)

• 6/9/2024

  From data science to statistics in an academic medical center

• 5/25/2024

  Read (questions) around your patients

• 5/23/2024

  Hallucination, extrapolation, and variance

• 5/10/2024

  Cutoffs and supplemental oxygen

• 4/21/2024

  This model is basically alive!

• 

  4/12/2024

  Relative sparsity poster

• 3/17/2024

  A graphical view of test characteristics

• 3/3/2024

  Test characteristics are probabilities!

• 2/25/2024

  The value of interpretability

• 2/4/2024

  “Good” is in expectation

• 1/21/2024

  Probability is not utility

• 11/26/2023

  Probability is everywhere

• 11/26/2023

  ChatGPT, reasoning, and medical diagnosis

• 11/12/2023

  PPV and risk calculators

• 10/22/2023

  Probability is more intuitive

• 10/1/2023

  Learn the language

• 9/6/2023

  Lay abstract for relative sparsity!

• 7/30/2023

  Bleeding vs. clotting

• 7/16/2023

  The added utility from ordering a test

• 

  6/20/2023

  Relative sparsity for medical decision problems

• 6/11/2023

  Counterfactuals and expected utility theory

• 6/4/2023

  Decision analysis reveals complexity

• 5/21/2023

  The counterfactual must be recorded

• 5/14/2023

  Responsibilities and protection associated with decision analysis

• 4/23/2023

  History of decision analysis

• 4/16/2023

  Why are all confounders needed?